FLOOD THREAT BULLETIN (For Twitter Updates follow @FloodDSS and @COFloodUpdates)


About:
The CWCB offers a daily assessment of flood potential around the state, issued at 11:00 am each day from May through September.

This product is issued daily before 11:00 am and is used to identify areas of the state that are at risk of flooding.  Updates can be issued as needed by weather situation.

This product is an outlook of the flood threat and precipitation amount and chance in the state over the next 15 days.

This map is created by merging the 24-hr Storm Total Precipitation (STP) product observed regional WSR-88D and the MADIS observational database. Issued at 9:30 am every day.




Issue Date:  Thursday, July 24 2014
Time Issued:  10:55 AM MDT
Forecaster:  Brad Workman

MONSOONAL MOISTURE WORKING BACK INTO THE STATE, FLOOD THREAT INCREASES

A MODERATE FLOOD THREAT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO. A LOW FLOOD THREAT HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL URBAN CORRIDOR, HIGH COUNTRY, AND WESTERN SLOPE.

A high pressure ridge continues to sit over the region, but a shift to the south has allowed a weak flow of monsoon moisture to work back into the state. The reasoning for the shift south is depicted well in the water vapor imagery below; a strong, low pressure system to the northwest is working its way towards/across the Northern Rockies, suppressing the high pressure system and forcing it southward. In doing so, southwesterly flow has returned, bringing in a plume of monsoonal moisture.

This monsoonal moisture will gradually works its way east across the state throughout the day, allowing for thunderstorm chances statewide. The most activity will be over the mountains and western slope where moisture will be deepest. Locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning are the main threats. Further east over the Plains, the Palmer Divide and north will see scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, while areas to the south will be see an isolated storm or two. Low-level moisture will erode over the plains this afternoon, creating “Inverted-V” profiles, which will lower rain efficiency and increase the strong wind threat (gusting to 45-55 mph) with thunderstorms.


High Country and Western Slope:

Numerous-to-scattered thunderstorms will impact the area today, generally producing gusty winds, moderate rainfall, and dangerous lightning. The strongest storms will hold the potential to produce heavy rain to the tune of 1.0-2.0 inches/hour, though most storms will produce less than 1.0 inches/hour. The entire region has been placed under a flood threat for today and tonight; storms are currently ongoing and will continue until around midnight, with a few lingering cells into the early morning hours over southern portions of the region.

Eastern Plains:

Scattered thunderstorms north, isolated south, is the name of the game today. Thunderstorm activity will begin around 1 PM and come to an end around 9 PM. The urban corridor will see the most activity, especially from Colorado Springs and north, where orographic effects will play an effective role. Storms will spread east with time, with best chances for activity along and north/northeast of the Palmer Divide. Drier air will be mixed into the lower-levels this afternoon and evening, especially east of the urban corridor, which will decrease rain efficiency (0.25-0.5 inches/hour), but increase strong wind production (gusting to 45-55 mph under strongest storms). Orographic effects and better moisture values will hold a low flood threat for central portions of the urban corridor, as rain rates of 1.0-1.5 inches/hour are possible under the strongest storms.

Hover over your county to read your county-specific flood threat prediction.



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Disclaimer:

The State of Colorado makes no warranties or guarantees, either expressed or implied as to the completeness, accuracy, or correctness of the data portrayed in this product nor accepts any liability, arising from any incorrect, incomplete or misleading information contained therein.  All information, data and databases are provided "as is" with no warranty, expressed or implied, including but not limited to, fitness for a particular purpose. 

By accessing this website and/or data contained within the databases, you hereby release the State of Colorado, its employees, agents, contractors, and suppliers from any and all responsibility and liability associated with its use. In no event shall the State of Colorado or its officers or employees be liable for any damages arising in any way out of the use of the website, or use of the information contained in the website herein including, but not limited to the Flood Threat Portal.  





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