FTB 06-26-2016: Fewer Thunderstorms Today

Issue Date: 6/26/2016
Issue Time: 10:05 AM

NO FLOOD THREAT IS FORECAST.

The water vapor image below tells the main story of today’s forecast as westerly flow aloft has continued to transport drier air into Colorado. The drier air, along with no disturbances to be found, will lead to a significant downtick in showers/thunderstorms as compared to the past couple of days. However, sufficient instability and moisture will remain for the production of isolated-to-widely scattered showers/storms across the following regions: Northeast Plains, Urban Corridor, Palmer Ridge, Front Range, Central Mountains, Southeast Mountains, San Juan Mountains, Raton Ridge, and Southeast Plains.

WV_20160626

Due to the overall reduction in deep moisture, especially in more flood susceptible areas, no flood threat is forecast. A couple of strong-to-severe storms will develop over the plains, but observed/forecast soundings suggest more of a damaging wind threat than heavy rain. Temperatures will rise a couple of degrees for most locations today, with the biggest jump expected across northeastern Colorado.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below (hover over threat areas for more details). For Zone-Specific forecasts, jump below the map.

Flood Threat Legend

Zone-Specific Forecasts

Northeast Plains, Urban Corridor, Palmer Ridge, Raton Ridge, and Southeast Plains:

Isolated-to-widely scattered showers/thunderstorms will break up the otherwise mostly sunny sky. Areas along/near the higher terrain of the Front Range/Southeast Mountains, as well as near the preferred terrain of the Cheyenne Ridge/Palmer Ridge/Raton Ridge will have the most coverage, relatively speaking, thanks to orographic influences. Microbursts are possible under the stronger storms, and gusty winds/lightning will be the main threats. Maximum rain rates are as follows:

Urban Corridor: 0.4-0.8 inches/hour
Palmer Ridge: 0.5-1.0 inches/hour
Northeast Plains: 1.0-2.0 inches/hour
Southeast Plains and Raton Ridge: 1.2-1.8 inches/hour

Timing: 1 PM – 9 PM

Outflow boundaries from afternoon convection across western KS/NE and southern WY will need to be monitored this evening. An isolated thunderstorm or two will be possible as they converge across the Northeast Plains/Palmer Ridge from 9 PM – 3 AM. If these storms develop, they will likely produce the heaviest rain of the day, with maximum rain rates of 1.5-2.0 inches/hour. These storms will not persist long, due to less instability after sunset and a neutral atmosphere above.

Front Range, Central Mountains, San Juan Mountains, San Luis Valley, and Southeast Mountains:

Isolated-to-widely scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon/evening. The main threats will be gusty winds/lightning as moisture is significantly lower than previous days. Maximum rain rates will be 0.3-0.6 inches/hour. The San Luis Valley will remain mainly dry, with areas near the surrounding higher terrain seeing the best chance for any storm activity.

Timing: Noon – 9 PM

Northern Mountains, Northwest Slope, Grand Valley, and Southwest Slope:

Mostly sunny and hot, with temperatures pushing a couple degrees warmer than yesterday. Isolated cumulus clouds will develop over the higher terrain of the Southwest Slope and Northern Mountains, with perhaps a few patches of virga underneath the high bases.