FTB 06-14-2018: More Wind than Rain Expected from Thunderstorms

Issue Date: 6/14/2018
Issue Time: 7:40 AM


Mid-level moisture is streaming into the state from the southwest as a result of high pressure aloft over New Mexico and an upper-level trough digging into the Pacific Northwest. This stream of moisture is sufficient enough to produce plenty of mid-level clouds this morning, and will support scattered thunderstorms across the state this afternoon and evening. Unfortunately for those looking for wetting rain, you will not find much of it today. The low-levels will remain too dry, especially over the High Country, where dry thunderstorms will produce plenty of virga, gusty winds, and cloud-to-ground lightning which could spark new fires.

East of the mountains, a little bit better low-level moisture is present, but not nearly enough to result in heavy rainfall. Strong, gusty winds and lightning will be the main impacts from thunderstorms today, with only brief periods of light-to-moderate rainfall as storms race off to the east-northeast. A couple of grass fires were started in Weld County last night, burning over 8,000 acres before being contained. Grass fires sparked by cloud-to-ground lightning will be a concern today, as well.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below (hover over threat areas for more details). For Zone-Specific forecasts, jump below the map.

Flood Threat Legend

Zone-Specific Forecasts

Front Range, Southeast Mountains, Urban Corridor, Palmer Ridge, Northeast Plains, Southeast Plains, and Raton Ridge:

Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected, producing more wind and lightning than rain. Plenty of virga will paint the sky, with brief periods of light-to-moderate rainfall underneath thunderstorms. Otherwise, the main story will be that high temperatures are a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with highs in the mid-to-upper 90s across the plains, and even a few 100+ readings in the Arkansas River Valley. Maximum rain rates from thunderstorms are as follows:

Front Range and Southeast Mountains: 0.05-0.15 inches/hour
Urban Corridor, Palmer Ridge, and Raton Ridge: 0.25-0.5 inches/hour
Northeast Plains and Southeast Plains: 0.4-0.8 inches/hour

Timing: Noon – 11 PM, with a few storms rumbling over the Eastern Plains until 1 AM

Northern Mountains, Northwest Slope, Central Mountains, Grand Valley, San Juan Mountains, San Luis Valley, and Southwest Slope:

Isolated-to-scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected today, producing very little (if any) rainfall. Most of the activity will remain south of I-70, but a few isolated storms over the Northern Mountains and Northwest Slope cannot be ruled out. Gusty winds and cloud-to-ground lightning will be the main concerns, with Red Flag Warnings in place across much of the area. Rain rates will remain below 0.15 inches/hour.

Timing: 11 AM – 11 PM