FTB 05-14-2019: Repeat Pattern of Monday as the Ridge Axis Moves Overhead

Issue Date: Tuesday, May 14th, 2019
Issue Time: 8:15AM MDT

–Flooding is NOT expected today

With the ridge axis directly over Colorado by this afternoon, expecting another day of above average temperatures and abundant sunshine statewide. The surface high pressure will rotate over the Arizona and New Mexico border, which should bring in a little mid-level energy to northern Colorado for storms and increased cloud cover this afternoon. Flow aloft will be northwesterly (east) and more westerly (west) this afternoon, which will hold the dry air mass in place. This morning in Denver, PW was measured at 0.38 inches with drier air just above the surface. While there is limited low level moisture, still expecting scattered storm activity this afternoon and evening favoring the high terrains including the Cheyenne, Palmer and Raton Ridges. A few weak storms may also be possible over the eastern plains as models have been hinting at convergence near Cheyenne, Kit Carson and Kiowa counties. Similar to yesterday, thunderstorms and rainfall will be high-based, so expecting low accumulations and some brief gusty winds under the virga. As anticipated, flooding is not forecast today.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the map.

Zone-Specific Forecasts:

Front Range, Urban Corridor, Northern Mountains, Southeast Mountains, Palmer Ridge, Raton Ridge, Southeast Plains, Northeast Plains:

Activity will pick up again this afternoon over the mountains with the diurnal flow and some mid-level energy. Best chance for accumulation is over the northern high terrains in this area where up to 0.25 inches are possible. As storms move into the adjacent plains, they will likely survive only over the higher ridges and not much accumulation is expected. A few storms may also be possible over the plains, but all totals are expected to remain under 0.15 inches. Storm activity will decrease with sundown, so overnight rainfall and flooding are not forecast.

Primetime: 2PM to 10PM

Northwest Slope, Grand Valley, Southwest Slope, Central Mountains, San Juan Mountains, San Luis Valley:

High temperatures and plentiful sunshine to start the day. Cloud cover is anticipated to increase this afternoon over the northwest corner of the state with an approaching wave. However, only trace amounts of rainfall are forecast for these areas. Therefore the cloud cover will mostly be shade from the afternoon sun. High temperatures are expected to reach the mid-80°Fs over the lower elevations and 60°F in the mountain valleys. Isolated totals up to 0.1 inches are possible over the Central and San Juan Mountains. Flooding is not forecast today.

Primetime: 3PM to 8PM