FTB 05-16-2019: Warm Temperatures Continue and an Increase in Cloud Cover is Forecast

Issue Date: Thursday, May 16th, 2019
Issue Time: 8:45AM MDT

–Flooding is NOT expected today

High clouds to start the morning that are associated with the trough that continues to move east. Currently, the ridge that has been controlling our weather the last couple of days has moved into western Nebraska. This means southwesterly flow across the state today and some gusty winds over western Colorado this afternoon. Expecting embedded disturbances in the 500mb flow to help increase afternoon storminess over the mountains. A dry slot (marked in dark orange below) starts to move into western Colorado by this afternoon into this evening. Between that and the southwest motion of the storms today, rainfall should be confined to the eastern portions of the Northern, Central and San Juan Mountains for western Colorado. Some strong gusts are likely again today as the storms develop and evaporate.

A slight increase in moisture with this system and southwest motion means more coverage of storms over the Front Range with activity possibly spilling over into the adjacent and eastern plains. Overall, this system still doesn’t have a lot of moisture with it, so not expecting high accumulations with the high-based thunderstorms. More or less, expect cloudiness to increase throughout the day. The best chance for rainfall occurs early this evening over the Front Range and Northern Mountains, but with quick storm motion and only minimal low level moisture, not expecting any accumulations over 0.25 inches. Some light rainfall may linger until about midnight over the Northeast Plains, but flooding is not forecast.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the map.

 

Zone-Specific Forecasts:

Front Range, Northern Mountains, Urban Corridor, Palmer Ridge, Raton Ridge, Northeast Plains:

Another day with some hot, spring temperatures. Highs could reach 90°F again across the lower elevations. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to pick up again this afternoon over the higher elevations. Without much moisture, expect gusty winds and more cloud cover than accumulation. Isolated, 24-hour totals up to 0.25 inches are possible over the Front Range and Northern Mountains, though the majority of storms will produce less than 0.1 inches or just a few sprinkles. Strong gusts are also possible with the evaporation of storms. Not much thunderstorm activity is forecast over the adjacent and eastern plains either, although there is a slight chance for light rainfall over the Northeast Plains tonight. Flooding is not forecast.

Primetime: 1PM to Midnight

Northwest Slope, Grand Valley, Southeast Mountains, Southwest Slope, Central Mountains, San Juan Mountains, San Luis Valley, Southeast Plains:

Cloud cover will increase throughout the day, but not much accumulation is likely with the storms that develop due to the dry air mass in place. High wind gusts will likely mix to the surface as well under storms. Winds are expected to pick up over the western portion of the state by early afternoon, but no fire danger is expected at this time. The best chance for measurable rainfall will again be along the Divide. Max 1-hr rain rates up to 0.2 inches are possible for storms today, although most totals will be trace amounts or under 0.1 inches. Flooding is not forecast.

Primetime: 2PM to 9PM