FTB 06-11-2019: Gusty Winds and Weak Thunderstorms Possible over Northeast Colorado with Runoff Continuing to Cause Flooding Issues Over Southwest Colorado

Issue Date: Tuesday, June 11th, 2019
Issue Time: 8:50AM MDT

–A LOW flood threat is issued for portions of the San Antonio/Conejos Rivers, headwaters of the Rio Grande and San Juan Rivers including the Rio Grande near Del Norte and the Arkansas River near Avondale

Colorado will officially be under northwest flow today. This will push weak mid-level energy through the eastern portion of the state, such as the shortwave marked in green below. The Denver sounding showed a PW value of 0.35 inches with only a shallow layer of low level moisture. This should mix out throughout the day and keep showers and weak thunderstorms high-based once again. Therefore, the main threats today will be gusty outflow winds and lightning under the weak thunderstorms. Thunderstorms this afternoon will form along a weak cold front moving south over the eastern plains. With the aid of the left exit region of the jet, expecting storm coverage only over the Northeast Plains. Back to the west over the northern Front Range and Urban Corridor a weak shower or two may be possible, but totals should remain under 0.1 inches.

Melting continues today, which will affect higher elevation rivers over southwest Colorado, so the Flood Watch for the San Juan Mountains and San Luis Valley continues through Wednesday morning. A Low flood threat has also issued for portions of the San Antonio and Conejos Rivers, Rio Grande River (especially near Del Norte) and for all headwaters of the San Juan River and Rio Grande including William Creek upstream from Lake San Cristobal. Additionally, a Low threat has been issued for the Arkansas River near Avondale, which has gone into minor flooding. This will mostly affect lowland areas near Avondale through this weekend.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the map.

Flood Threat Legend

 

Zone-Specific Forecasts:

Front Range, Southeast Mountains, Raton Ridge, Palmer Ridge, Urban Corridor, Northeast Plains, Southeast Plains:

High temperatures this afternoon will be comparable to yesterday minus a couple of degrees thanks to a weak cold front dropping south throughout the day. Under northwest flow aloft, only weak thunderstorms and showers are forecast over the Northeast Plains and northern Front Range/Urban Corridor. Max 1-hr rain should remain under 0.1 inches (west) with only slightly higher totals possible over the Northeast Plains. With swift storm movement under the jet and high-bases, totals are expected to remain under 0.3 inches. Gusty winds are also forecast with the jet overhead. Brief gusts up to 25 mph are possible this afternoon with sustained winds in the 10 to 15 knot range.

Increased flows over the Arkansas west of Pueblo will also be monitored closely over the next week as a couple of gages remain in the Action stage. Not expecting any of these gages to reach the minor flooding mark this week. However, the Arkansas gage near Avondale has gone above flood stage and is expected to remain in the Minor flooding stage through this weekend. A Low flood threat has been added to this area. Please tune into your local NWS office for the latest on flood warnings, advisories and statements and follow the daily FTB.

Primetime: 3PM to 9PM

Northern Mountains, Central Mountains, San Juan Mountains, Northwest Slope, Grand Valley, Southwest Slope, San Luis Valley:

Another dry day is expected with dew points in the mid-20°Fs over western Colorado, so not forecasting rainfall again this afternoon. There will be an increase in cloud cover by mid-afternoon that will fill in from north to south with the northwest flow aloft. Highs today will reach the upper 80°Fs in the valleys, with mid-60°Fs in the high mountain valleys. Mid-elevation stations will likely record highs in the 70°Fs such as Steamboat and Pagosa Springs.

Above average temperatures will continue the melting of the high elevation snow. The Flood Watch continues for the San Juan Mountains and San Luis Valley. A Low flood threat has also been issued for portions of the San Antonio and Conejos Rivers, Rio Grande River (especially near Del Norte) and for all headwaters of the San Juan River and Rio Grande. Areal Flood Advisories (as of this morning) are issued for the following: Central Hinsdale County above Lake San Cristobal along Williams Creek, Colorado River near the CO/UT state line, Animas River near Durango, San Juan River at Pagosa Springs, La Plata River at Hesperus, Manco River near Mancos, the Gunnison River above Grand Junction, Los Pinos River near Bayfield and Eagle River at Red Cliff. At this time, rivers across western Colorado are not forecast to reach flood stage but rather reach bankfull conditions with minor flooding limited to lowland area. Follow the NWS for the latest updates on the daily runoff and river stages.