FTB 06-15-2021: Intense June Heat Mixed with Smoke

Issue Date: Tuesday, June 15th, 2021
Issue Time: 8:55AM MDT

— Flooding is NOT expected today

It’s going to be a scorcher this afternoon under the anomalously strong June ridge. The High has moved into the four corners region and is helping to advect smoke into the state. The smoke this morning is pretty thick across the western border, which can be seen by the gray/brown hue below. It remains incredible dry over the majority of the state (clear skies below), and PW at Denver has dropped to 0.56 inches. The lack of moisture will help to keep precipitation chances and totals very low today. Water vapor imagery indicates some mild moisture trapped under the ridge across the southern border. So, as the diurnal flow develops, a couple high based storms are possible across the southern mountains. Perhaps even an isolated, high-based storm or two over the Palmer/Raton Ridges near the mountains. More wind than rainfall is forecast from storms that do develop today, so flooding is NOT expected.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below. If there is a threat, hover over the threat areas for more details, and click on burn areas to learn more about them. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the threat map.

Zone-Specific Forecasts:

Southeast Mountains, Front Range, Palmer Ridge & Raton Ridge:

Best chance for measurable rainfall this afternoon will be over the Southeast Mountains and Raton Ridge. A high-based storm or two may also pop over the southern Front Range and Palmer Ridge. Storms should track more south today with the location of the High. Brief, max 1-hour rain rates up to 0.40 inches will be possible across the ridges, while max rain rates will drop to 0.15 inches per hour over the mountains. Outflow winds will be the main threat from the storms that do develop, so flooding is NOT forecast.

Primetime: 2PM to 10PM

Grand Valley, Southwest Slope, Northwest Slope, San Juan Mountains, Central Mountains & Northern Mountains:

The excessive heat warning continues through Friday. Highs will reach 100F+ again for the Grand Valley and portions of the Southwest and Northwest Slope. Plenty of daily temperature records will be broken this afternoon, so be sure to take breaks from the heat and carry water with you. Afternoon cumulus will likely pop over the San Juan Mountains and may produce some very light rainfall/sprinkles (east). Smoke will continue to cause hazy conditions and poor air quality. This feels more like an August forecast than mid-June forecast. Flooding is NOT forecast.

Urban Corridor, San Luis Valley, Northeast Plains & Southeast Plains:

It’s going to be hot this afternoon, so be sure to take lots of breaks if you’re outside. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the upper 90Fs and likely reach 100F across a few areas. That means many daily temperature records have the potential to be broken. Rainfall is not forecast.