FTB 06-24-2020: Garden Variety Storms Forecast for the Mountains and Eastern Plains

Issue Date: Wednesday, June 24th, 2020
Issue Time: 8:15AM MDT

— Flooding is NOT expected today

Rinse and repeat pattern today with a few minor differences in the details. While the High continues to produce northwest flow over the state, it will also move northeast into Arizona this afternoon. Additionally, the axis ridge to our north will be pushed slightly east as the next incoming system sets up to our west. Both of these will place a drier air mass over the state, which can be seen below in the water vapor imagery (more yellow and orange shades than blue). This drier air mass should also produce lower rain rates when compared to yesterday. Also similar to yesterday, there is no large visible shortwave moving through the flow aloft or jet stream overhead, which will translate to more garden variety and weak thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Although storm movement will still be slow to the southeast and trailing storms may help increase local totals, flooding is not expected.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below. If there is a threat, hover over the threat areas for more details, and click on burn areas to learn more about them. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the threat map.

Zone-Specific Forecasts:

Southeast Mountains, Front Range, Urban Corridor, Southeast Plains, Northeast Plains, Palmer Ridge, & Raton Ridge:

Storms should initiate over the high terrains by early afternoon favoring the Front Range, western Palmer Ridge, and Southeast Mountains for development. Storm motion will once again be to the southeast, which will cause storms to spill into the adjacent plains by 3 or 4PM. Garden variety thunderstorms are forecast with gusty winds being the main threat under the stronger storms. Isolated max 1-hour rain rates up to 0.70 inches will be possible (west) and 0.40 inches (east). Slightly lower rain rates are anticipated over the Southeast Mountains and Palmer Ridge. Most activity will end around 11PM, and storms won’t likely make it east of Highway 71 (~104 degW). Flooding is not forecast today.

Primetime: 1PM to 12AM

Central Mountains, San Juan Mountains, Northern Mountains, Northwest Slope, Grand Valley, San Luis Valley, & Southwest Slope:

Scattered high-based storms will be possible over the Northern/Central Mountains near the Divide and over the south San Juan Mountains, but not much rainfall is forecast (up to 0.05 inches). Other than that, it should remain dry with temperatures a couple degrees warmer than yesterday with the ridge strengthening over the state. A few storms may track into the Southwest Slope from Utah, but only gusty winds are forecast as the storms begin to dissipate in the dry air mass.