FTB 06-30-2020: Fire Danger Remains Elevated Across Southern Colorado

Issue Date: Tuesday, June 30th, 2020
Issue Time: 8:55AM MDT

— Flooding is NOT expected today

Not much change in the location of the Low from yesterday. Today it will continue to lift to the northeast, which will push a vorticity max (purple “X” on the right) and rain showers associated with this southwest jet eastward. Behind the speed maximum, flow aloft will become more westerly, which should mix out a lot of the surface moisture. There will also be general subsidence; thus, outside of some high-based storms over the Northeast Plains producing light rainfall along the speed max, it should remain dry over eastern Colorado. High surface winds are forecast over portions of the Southeast Mountains, San Juan Mountains, and San Luis Valley with higher winds speed aloft today. Paired with very dry air and low relative humidity values, a Red Flag Warning has been issued.

Additional weak storms are possible over the Northwest Slope as a second disturbance (purple “X” on left) moves over the area. Again, not much moisture associated with this shortwave and overall system, which can be seen by the yellow shade over the state below. So, the main threat will be some brief, gusty outflow winds under the stronger storms with only a little accumulation forecast for the Northern Mountains. As anticipated, there is no flood threat issued.

Today’s Flood Threat Map

For more information on today’s flood threat, see the map below. If there is a threat, hover over the threat areas for more details, and click on burn areas to learn more about them. For Zone-Specific forecasts, scroll below the threat map.

Zone-Specific Forecasts:

Central Mountains, Northern Mountains, Northwest Slope, Grand Valley, & Southwest Slope:

Some weak showers are possible this evening and tonight over the Northwest Slope and Northern Mountains as a shortwave moves overhead. Accumulations will be light over the Northern Mountains with totals under 0.10 inches. Temperatures this afternoon will also be cooler than yesterday by 5-10F. This cool off will be short-lived, so be sure to enjoy it.

Primetime: 4PM to 11PM

Front Range, Urban Corridor, Southeast Plains, Northeast Plains, & Palmer Ridge:

As the speed maximum and associated cloud cover moves eastward, some light showers will be possible over the Northeast Plains where moisture is a little higher. Storms will likely produce more wind than rain over the border counties, but max 1-hour rain rates up to 0.25 inches will be possible in that area. Subsidence and dry westerly flow aloft will keep the eastern mountains/adjacent plains quiet this afternoon, and cooler temperatures are also expected behind the front (5-10F). Flooding is not forecast.

Primetime: 2PM to 8PM

Southeast Mountains, Raton Ridge, San Juan Mountains, & San Luis Valley:

Higher fire danger is anticipated in portions of these regions with the dry air mass and jet overhead. Highest fire danger today will be over the San Luis Valley and eastern San Juan Mountains. Winds are forecast from the west between 10 and 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph possible. Higher gusts are possible over the mountain passes such as Wolf Creek Pass. Some gusty winds could fill into the I-25 corridor, although Red Flag Warnings are not issued at this time. Be sure to tune into your local NWS office for the latest on the elevated fire danger.