FBF: Fire Burn Forecast for 09-25-2022

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The table below shows the Fire Burn Forecast (FBF) for select, high-risk burn areas in Colorado over the next 24 hours. The forecasts are issued by 11AM daily from May 1st to September 30th. Additionally, the table shows three measures of antecedent rainfall for the prior 24 hours (blue columns) to assess the current soil conditions over the given burn area. The measures are: (1) maximum 3-hour and (2) average 24-hour rainfall over any portion of the burn area, and (3) the percentage of the burn area that received precipitation. These estimates are derived from gridded, gauge-adjusted radar rainfall products. A separate column shows a subjective evaluation of whether flooding was reported in the past 24 hours.

For Today’s Threat, the FBF uses the same five-tiered threat system as the Flood Threat Bulletin (None, Low, Moderate, High and High Impact). The FBF threat level represents the likelihood for excessive runoff, flash flooding, mud flows and/or debris slides over the given burn area within the next 24 hours.

Similar to the FTB, the goal of the FBF is to provide an early outlook for threat awareness. Importantly, this product is NOT meant to serve as a real-time warning system. To learn more about the FBF and information about the location of the burn areas, visit the About the FTB page.

The blue columns represent antecedent conditions from the past 24 hours.